India’s engagement with Central Asia on strategic military concerns is gathering pace, with high-level visits and cooperation deals underscoring the immense value New Delhi attaches to the region. The strengthened Indian presence in the area is driven by New Delhi’s desire not only to protect its investments in Central Asia, but also its interests in Afghanistan after NATO withdraws in 2014.
Indian Army chief Gen. V.K. Singh’s recent visit to Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan is less indicative of a new initiative than of existing relationships being taken to the next level. The deeper strategic cooperation with the two largest Central Asian republics will not only help New Delhi secure its economic engagement with both countries, but also increase its own geopolitical space more broadly.
An Indo-Japanese entente in Asia has been a much-discussed, but somewhat amorphous proposition -- till now. China’s belligerent posture in the South China Sea and the perceived decline of U.S. influence has managed to focus minds in both Tokyo and New Delhi. Japan and India are moving to put in place a strategic economic structure that can enrich both sides while maintaining the Asian balance of power.
In a move that signals India's resolve to stay the course in Afghanistan, Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh signed a Strategic Partnership Agreement with visiting Afghan President Hamid Karzai in New Delhi last week. The deal includes a major security component. However, India's plans in Afghanistan go well beyond a simplistic security rubric and are increasingly driven by longer-term geo-economic interests.
While much has been written about China's port development projects in the Indian Ocean region, Beijing's undersea activities in the area could also pave the way for a naval presence and may prove to be the greater source of consternation for India and its navy. The cornerstone of China's undersea resource ambitions is its manned submersible program, which seems to have made some impressive strides of late.
Ending a months-long dispute over oil payments, Iran has now resumed oil shipments to India, with Turkey stepping in as a key facilitator to resolve the impasse. The tripartite arrangement, by which Turkey will rout Indian payments to Iran, comes amid regional tensions over Syria and indicates that India's energy interests are emerging as a key variable in the strategic calculus of Middle Eastern capitals.
Many commentators saw Vietnam's calls for foreign involvement in its maritime territorial dispute with China as a thinly veiled invitation to the United States. But it could also be a precursor to India establishing a permanent naval presence in Vietnamese waters. That would not only add military heft to India's "Look East" policy, but also reflects a larger Indian effort to counter China's activities in South Asia.
Saudi Arabia's recent announcement that it plans to build 16 large reactors by 2030 may have seemed incongruous in the wake of the Fukushima crisis. In fact, it actually buttresses the Middle East's current trajectory as a major future market for nuclear energy. Moreover, given the sheer size of the plan, Riyadh is in a position to set terms and use the project to enhance new partnerships while balancing old ones.
India's selection of European aircraft as finalists for the multi-role fighter jet tender has been seen by many U.S. observers as a snub to the Indo-U.S. strategic partnership, despite the Indian government's great efforts to frame the decision as a purely technical one. In reality, the Indian decision reflects the fact that, in this particular case, Europe offers a superior value proposition than the United States.
The Saudi intervention in Bahrain has upped the ante in the Saudi-Iranian cold war, crystallizing it into a wider Sunni-Shiite schism in the Muslim world. Saudi Arabia has reportedly invoked a treaty with Sunni-dominated Pakistan to secure troops to stabilize Bahrain and its own eastern provinces. Riyadh has also asked Turkey to make it clear to Iran that interference in the Gulf states will not be tolerated.
The plight of the Indian freighter MV Asphalt Venture added a new dimension to India's fight against piracy in the Indian Ocean when Somali pirates announced they would retain seven Indian sailors as hostages, even though they had released the ship itself. India can no longer afford a purely defensive strategy on the high seas, but must now look at both economic and political intervention in the Horn of Africa.
The implications for India of a proposed U.S.-China grand strategy agreement hammered out by a group of policy experts in Washington and Beijing was a major concern for the late K. Subhramanyam. The document proposed a series of strategic compromises between China and the U.S. Indian analysts, including Subhramanyam, saw the proposal as a ploy by the Chinese to "use the U.S. to attain hegemonic power in Asia."
India's central bank announced that it would no longer allow Indian importers to trade with Iran using the Asian Clearing Union, saying it wanted to explore an alternate means of facilitating trade-related payments. Talks are currently underway to resolve the issue. Nevertheless, the episode has underlined the fact that India cannot always avoid zero-sum games as it emerges into becoming a full-fledged global power.
As U.S. President Barack Obama put it in his address to the Indian parliament, "India isn't emerging. It has already emerged." India has grown steadily through the global recession, and the Asian giant is taking measures to reorient global institutions to suit its geopolitical weight. India has sought partnerships with neighbors and like-minded Asian democracies to counter China, and is attempting to rapidly modernize its military, especially its naval and air-force capabilities. This strategic posture review examines India's foreign and defense policies and its strategic priorities.
Turkey is leveraging its longstanding ties with Pakistan and its stature as one of the few industrialized countries in the Muslim world to create a diplomatic role for itself in Afghanistan. Ankara's recent decision to keep India out of the January 2010 tripartite summit on Afghanistan at Pakistan's behest may be indicative of a larger realignment in the region, with the Pakistan-Turkey relationship serving as an incubator.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy is the latest head of state to visit India at a time when the latter is looking to award lucrative contracts in energy, infrastructure, security and other areas. The visit saw forward movement on a number of bilateral deals valued at around $20 billion. Both sides seek a more-enduring partnership than a purely commercial transaction, however.
For a number of reasons, space-based solar power may soon emerge as one of the leading sectors of strategic cooperation between India and the U.S. Neither SBSP nor the idea of an international partnership as an enabler for it is new. However, various technological advances that make SBSP a more realistic possibility now coincide with growing U.S. interest in India as a potential partner in such an endeavor.
Reports last week suggested that China is considering investing in a large, 1,000-megawatt reactor in Pakistan. If validated, they indicate that Chinese policymakers have given the go-ahead to a nuclear development plan prioritizing early export of indigenous large reactors, while simultaneously underlining Beijing's willingness and ability to pursue a policy of nuclear exceptionalism in the subcontinent.
Nuclear energy's recent renaissance has seen the United States firm up nuclear cooperation agreements with a number of emerging nuclear nations. However the most eye-catching so far is the proposed deal with Vietnam, which stands out not only for its departure from the standard template of such deals, but also because it comes at a time when Sino-American interests have been at odds in the South China Sea.
A number of recent incidents involving both China's presence in Pakistani-controlled Kashmir and its stance on the Kashmir dispute in general have exacerbated the feeling among Indian analysts that New Delhi is being systematically "surrounded" by Beijing. The developments highlight the fact that the geostrategic struggle between India and Pakistan for Kashmir has a third direct player: China.
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